By Denis Sheehan FIH: Bloody robots, coming over ere nicking our jobs…
Robots are being deployed in ever greater numbers by hospitality operators, and like all new technologies are being welcomed by some as others question. The questioners are of course right to do so, but how much time is applied to questioning needs to be balanced against commercial realism. How quickly is change taking place, and why, are two ways of checking your position. The danger being allowing competitive advantage to pass you by.
Technology Lifecycles
The product life cycle is defined as four distinct stages: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. An interesting quandary occurs however when you ask, where is the world wide web (www) in its product lifecycle?
It’s a dilemma that when answered by ChatGPT delivers: “The www, since its inception in 1989, has evolved significantly and its position in the product life cycle is not as straightforward as it might be for a traditional product. Each stage of the product life cycle—introduction, growth, maturity, and decline—has distinct characteristics, and the www exhibits traits that could align with different stages depending on distinct perspectives or contexts.
At this point the distinction between the internet and the world wide web perhaps helps in shaping our thought. The Internet is the underlying global network infrastructure that connects millions of computers and devices, while the www is one of the services that runs on top of the Internet, providing access to websites and web applications through web browsers.
Robots powered by AI are integrated www services running on top of the internet.
So, the question about product lifecycle when applied to www, or indeed robots is akin to asking the same of transport, trains, planes, and automobiles, which are of course constantly adapting, as will robots.
Emergence of robotics and artificial intelligence
Robotics and artificial intelligence are inextricably linked, and just like transport are here to stay. Transport is a fundamental component of the economy and society, facilitating trade, connecting communities, and enabling travel and exploration. Robots, powered by AI will also become a fundamental component of the economy and society. In the next few years and decades to come robots will become as everyday as trains, precise predictions are hard to nail down, but relatively soon nobody will bat an eye as they are served lunch by a humanoid robot.
The Musk Factor
Tesla
A relatively short while ago no one had heard of Tesla, today twenty one years later Tesla is the most valuable car manufacturer on the planet. It’s valuation as I write being circa $626 billion, not bad from a standing start in 2003. Telsla’s focus however is on mass manufacturing of robots not cars. The robotics side of the business becoming independent of cars, and at the same time their principal manufacturing driver.
Tesla Bot Optimus
Optimus, also known as Tesla Bot, is a general purpose robotic humanoid under development by Tesla. At Tesla’s AI Day on August 19, 2021, Elon Musk claimed that Tesla would build a working prototype by 2022. Today there are multiple working prototypes in development.
Musk is also on record having said that he thinks Optimus has the potential to be more significant than (Tesla’s) vehicle business over time. “My prediction is that Tesla’s long term value”, he then paused and corrected himself, “the majority of the long term value will be Optimus, and that prediction I am very confident of.”
Back to Hospitality and Catering
What has Elon Musk to do with our industry you may be thinking. In time, a similar timeframe to the creation of Tesla to where it is today, a few decades, the Tesla Bot Optimus, and/or developments of it could outnumber its human counterparts working in our industry. Before you dismiss the statement above as whatever your favourite term is for nonsense, please read on.
Achieving the Inconceivable
Consider someone on the 1st July 2003 telling you that a new electric car company launched that day would in twenty years become the world’s most valuable car manufacturer and the ninth most valuable business in the world. You would probably have dismissed the idea, as would most.
If you look at some of Musk’s other businesses, he has 1) Created businesses from concepts that seem ludicrous to most at the outset, and 2) Scaled those businesses within timescales never conceived possible.
Perhaps most tellingly the key aspect of their collective unprecedented success is they are all fundamentally interlinked, and interlinked is an understatement here, they share DNA is more accurate.
Tesla Bot Optimus will make up the largest segment of workers within Tesla and be spun out as a separate entity via IPO expected to be more valuable than Tesla. SpaceX and Starlink operates almost identically, and will be similarly harvested.
In 2002 SpaceX was created, nearly said launched, with the objective, see 1) above, of making humanity a multi planetary species. Today it enjoys, see 2) above, multibillion dollar contracts providing services to NASA including earlier this month the delivery of a payload to the moon.
In 2024 SpaceX is aiming for 144 orbital missions, further ramping up its launch cadence from around one launch every four days to one in less than three days.
The most common cargo on SpaceX rockets are Starlink satellites. Starlink has created the world’s largest satellite constellation using a low Earth orbit, 55 km, to deliver broadband internet services across the globe. Currently there are 5,438 operational Starlink satellites in orbit, with thousands more planned to join them. Data is transferred between these satellites and Earth, 70 times faster than ‘traditional’ geo satellites, and they have a far greater global geographic reach than any other broadband internet service provider.
Robots AI, and table service
What all Elon Musk’s businesses share is the ability to deploy robots very profitably, powered by AI, not machine learning. AI and machine learning, the difference.
As robots and AI advances, at a pace never previously conceived, more and more of the jobs at all of Musk’s businesses will be done by robots. Not all, but a great many. This will include robots piloting Starship’s to Mars. So, when you think about the jobs robots could do, taking orders from diners and delivering them to tables in a sophisticated and appropriate manner that meets guest expectations is perhaps not so fanciful.
So, what’s the headline ‘Bloody robots, coming over ere nicking our jobs…’ all about?
In a recent X poll, we asked our followers…
“If robots were more widely deployed in hospitality and catering workplaces to conduct repetitive, mundane and/or physically demanding tasks, releasing people to focus on roles that require a human touch, would you see that as…
“A threat to jobs
“A business adjustment
“An industry opportunity”
I am glad to report that – An industry opportunity – won the day with 45% of the vote. Somewhat alarmingly – A threat to jobs – came in at 27%, the same result as – A business adjustment.
The results are anonymous, so critically we don’t know if the votes came from employees, or employers.
From an employer’s perspective our industry has not enjoyed full employment since at least 2002 as records from the Office for National Statistics show. As such, the idea that employers would not welcome robots undertaking some jobs, including housekeeping, and basic table service seems unlikely if that would help them achieve a position of zero vacancies and full service capability, although not impossible. The idea itself, and the change involved does not come easy to some.
From an employee’s perspective more latitude can be granted as understandably if you were in a job that would seem vulnerable, reservations are justifiable. Bloody robots, coming over ere nicking our jobs could well be uttered frequently by some to vent frustrations and worries. That said however, if a housekeeping team for example is working below full team compliment, having robot colleagues to fill the gaps and ease the load would in most instances be welcomed. Again, the idea itself, and the change involved does not come easy to some.
The answers to how our industry will adapt and change to life with a growing robotic workforce are challenging. Especially when how do we benefit from those changes are factored into the equation. The early stages will likely be relatively easy if we can go from almost never enjoying zero vacancies to a full team most of the time the industry will not only learn to embrace that but grow substantially consequently. As time and advances in technology advance, the adjustment process will also, allowing the opportunity for wider hospitality services to be developed and deployed alongside current customer propositions.
If you have got this far, thank you for your perseverance, I think the subject needs to be aired, considered, and debated to prepare employees and employers for the changes afoot. They are underway, and will only accelerate. We need to embrace change and plan to benefit from it.
