While Boris Johnson has been playing fast and loose with Europe, his future counterpart in the US has achieved what nobody else in the US could, delivering Donald Trump a political defeat.
President- elect Joe Biden has already shown his ability to outwit one Machiavellian opponent. If Boris Johnson is thinking of stepping up to be the next, he could be only a few moves away from checkmate.
In the run up to the US Presidential election Johnson must have factored a win scenario for Joe Biden. And just like in chess will have played out the possible moves on both sides of the Atlantic in relation to Brexit resulting from it.
Joe Biden is pragmatic and has a long standing reputation as a cross party dealmaker, an astute politician that calculates his moves carefully . He has much to do in his first 100 days, Covid-19 being first, second and third on that list. Many would say his and the US’s loyalty to the UK is stronger than wider European associations, and they are probably correct.
Biden’s loyalty to Ireland, albeit primarily emotional, does need to be fully understood by Johnson though, before he makes too many more moves.
Last night in the House of Lords Peers voted to remove the clause permitting ministers to override parts of the Brexit withdrawal agreement relating to Northern Ireland, by 407 votes to 148.
The Irish Vote
The 2013 American Community Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau showed that 33 million Americans—10.5% of the total population—reported Irish ancestry.
The US Democratic Party has strong historical links with Ireland and current key figures in the party today have strong allegiances to Ireland.
Pennsylvania
Stella O’Leary, President of the Irish American Democrats, a political action committee, targeted 2020 campaign activity specifically in marginal states like Pennsylvania, to appeal to ‘Irish’ voters. A winning tactic. Pre-election O’Leary said: “Of the swing states, Pennsylvania would be the one that the Irish would have the most influence.” She was right, and doubtless now grateful of the insight as will Joe Biden be of the votes.
With the Brexit deadline fast approaching, if Johnson gets his next move wrong it could cost him much more than it looks like he has factored into any equations so far. Joe Biden and the US Democratic Party’s Irish connections need to be high up on his list.
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