Menu & Food Trends 2014: keeping pace is critical
The theme throughout Allegra Foodservice’s latest report, Menu & Food Trends 2014, is that menus need to evolve with key trends whilst retaining the essence of the brand. There is an ever-growing complexity and skill in menu compilation as trends evolve, the economy develops, concepts mature and consumers demand more.
With a focus on restaurants, pubs and fast food, this new report explores menu composition, pricing analysis, menu trends and future developments, providing help for all operators and suppliers.
Changing menu segmentation
The analysis of existing menus found that while 100% of pub restaurant brands follow the classic menu segmentation structure (starters, main courses and desserts), for casual dining restaurants the figure is down to 76%. Allegra Foodservice questions whether this will be the case in five years’ time, given the rise of smaller plates and sharing platters and the changing nature of consumer tastes.
Allegra Foodservice also highlighted the limited provision of healthier eating initiatives across the sector, with just 36% of more than 120 restaurant brands providing menus containing full or limited calorie information.
Increased Menu Prices and Widening Price Ranges
Operators are becoming more confident to increase prices. There were significant average increases on entry (lowest) prices for starters (3.7%), mains (4.2%), desserts (4.5%) and glasses of wine (6.4%) between Q2 2013 and Q2 2014.
Typical price main dishes only saw a modest average increase of 0.9% in the same period, however notable increases were seen in the exit prices of main dishes as the average rose by 4.6%. Rising exit (dearest) prices allow operators to provide consumers with more premiumised eating experiences whilst reclaiming margins.
Fast food chains and pubs are increasing prices more cautiously than casual restaurants. Casual restaurants saw the highest increase in the average main dish typical price, which jumped by 5.8%
from £9.37 to £9.91. Operators of Casual Dining restaurants are able to increase prices as they are aware that economic confidence is improving, and this segment benefits from its greater focus on the evening day-part, which is less price sensitive than lunch.
Promotional activity diminishing
Allegra Foodservice’s Insight Director, Steve Gotham said industry feedback suggests the use of promotional activity is “diminishing” across the sector, but he predicted the rise of online and “stealth” promotions. “I think promotional activity will be used to offset some of the price rises that we’ll see come through. I think the two will play hand in hand.”
Allegra Foodservice expects to see wider price ranges on menus as exit prices are increased further to capture trading-up potential from improving consumer confidence and market sentiment.
Keeping up with Food Trends
Allegra Foodservice’s categorisation of food trends comprises “Mega”, “Established”, “Emerging”, “Hot”’ and “Short-lived” trends. The number of specific food trends within these categories is increasing, inspired by a more pervasive “food culture” and a globalising marketplace.
Mega trends create a framework for all other trends and are long-established. Emerging trends are on their way to being established, whilst hot and short-lived are present now and either expected to grow or wither.
Among the hot trends identified in the report include barbecue and smoked foods, new fast food concepts, single/specialised concepts, and street food.
Emerging trends that are likely to be become established ones include all-you-can-eat formats such as Red Hot World Buffet, all-day dining, artisan coffee, craft beer, frozen yoghurt, greater ingredient information, exotic sauces and spices, and widening proliferation of seafood/fish.
Short-lived trends include bubble tea, gourmet hot dogs and standalone juice bars.
Allegra Foodservice has identified the bell curve of these trends so that operators can plot each trend or concept according to their position of market leader or follower, recognising that keeping up with Food trends is incredibly complex.
“Chickenisation”
An example of an established trend is the “chickenisation” of menus, which has seen poultry become the most popular protein group in the eating-out sector. Speaking at the report briefing, Allegra Foodservice research analyst, Peter Linden said “Our analysis reveals that 31% of all mains surveyed at casual, fast food and pub restaurant brands are chicken-based. Chicken has enduring appeal across religious and ethnic divides, and is cheaper than beef. Chicken is followed on menus by beef and vegetarian dishes, at 22% and 18%.
“Meanwhile, the rise of barbecue food as a hot trend has seen barbecue sauce become the most popular sauce on menus in the second quarter of 2014, based on the number of operators offering the product (the research excluded tomato sauce). In total 13% of operators have dishes that include some form of barbecue sauce, ahead of tomato salsa (10%) and sweet or hot chilli (10%).”
Future developments
In order to help both operators and suppliers deal with the complexity of food trends the report identifies five future market scenarios: “Premiumised Informality”, “Responsible Consumption”, “Inspirational Adventurism”, “Trusted Value” and “Conscious Pragmatism”. Each scenario will be influenced and affected by changes in market growth rates and consumer behaviours, and each has an implication for menu planning.
Premiumised informality is here to stay
There are however, key developments that Allegra Foodservice predict will shape menu compilation and offer development regardless of the market changes – premiumised informality is here to stay for some time, as identified within the UK Restaurant Market Report, whilst Steve Gotham predicted “The industry will see evolving cooking techniques adding greater value to menus, and that open-plan kitchens, especially at indoor and outdoor barbeque concepts, will expand as theatre becomes an increasingly important point of differentiation; we could also see a resurgence in teppanyaki-inspired cooking as part of this experience-led evolution.”
Menu & Food Trends 2014
Released on 17 July, the inaugural Menu & Food Trends 2014 focuses on restaurants, pubs and fast food; the report explores menu composition, pricing analysis, menu trends and future developments.
About Allegra Foodservice
Allegra Foodservice delivers best-in-class business and consumer intelligence for the UK food and beverage sector. Services provide foodservice operators, suppliers, distributors and stakeholders with crucial market data, consumer insight and competitive intelligence.
Clients are enabled to realise their corporate, strategic and tactical aims through programmes that are tailored to meet their requirements.