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Inflation down further that predicted

December 20, 2023

By Angela Green: Inflation down further that predicted.

The Office for National Statistics earlier today released the latest inflation rate, measured by the consumer prices index, showing a fall in November to 3.9% from 4.6% in October, surprising analysts that had been a rate closer to 4.5%.

Inflation fell by 0.2% between October and November compared with a monthly rise of 0.4% the previous year. This sees an annual inflation rate at the lowest since September 2021, down from a peak of 11.1% in October 2022, which was the highest rate in more than 40 years, as food and energy prices rocketed.

Food prices saw a reversal to recent trends including the price of several bread products such as white and wholemeal sliced loaves, packs of cakes all falling between October and November.

Less pronounced reductions also helped downward contributions to the change in the inflation rate including meat, milk, cheese, eggs, and soft drinks.

The slowdown in inflation was helped by a reduction in petrol prices, seeing the average price of petrol fell by 4.1p a litre between October and November to 151p a litre, down from 163.6p a litre in November 2022. Overall, motor fuel prices fell by 10.6% in the year to November, compared with a fall of 7.6% in the year to October.

This morning sterling is trading 0.6% lower against the US dollar at $1.26 and has fallen 0.4% against the Euro to €1.15. Lower inflation numbers will put pressure on the Bank of England to start lowering interest rates.

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