UK hospitality operators are looking at Dubai and seeing salvation. Tax burden at 75% of pre-tax profit, £4.8 billion in new costs from recent Budgets, 2 venues closing daily. The UAE offers 15-20% total tax burden, population growth exceeding 5.7% annually, and F&B market projected to more than double by 2029. Simple calculation, obvious move.
Except the operators considering this don’t have the complete picture. I work with hospitality C-suite in both markets. The UAE requires 35% more startup capital than the UK, faces 99% prime location occupancy with 50+ bidders per available space, and issues 1,200+ new licenses annually into a market already dense with 13,000+ F&B establishments. The grass isn’t greener. It’s expensive artificial turf in a different climate.
I write this piece from my own chosen comfort of Dubai that has been my home for 11 ½ years after a long career in the UK, and around the world. I keep in touch with the UK industry and often breathe a sigh of relief that I no longer have to sit through hours long meetings on how to adjust to an increasingly pressurised market. This has not eased up, but grown and grown (groaned, more like), do I really see a sector in crisis…
I want to avoid the politics. My first comparison point: we have a government whose purpose is to enable business. When I was first inspired to move here 20 years ago, Dubai was marketing itself as “capital of the world.” That marketing campaign worked. My former boss found it hard to forgive me when I chose Dubai over London after a three-year stint in Moscow, but I knew that it was time for me to be challenged in an environment where trust, entrepreneurship, vision and opportunity prevailed; I was right.
My advisory practice works with entrepreneurs and global brands alike, we focus on growth, be they entering the market, or globalising from here. Like the COVID era, we’re experiencing sustained inward migration, their dollars are surging real estate and hospitality sectors again. Thousands of new residents arrive monthly, over 1,000 new restaurant licenses are issued annually, and real estate availability struggles to keep pace with population growth now exceeding 5.7% annually. The purpose of this is not to say how fabulous it is here in the UAE versus a struggling UK, but to advise caution.
There’s no published number of restaurants in the UAE, but there are probably more than 16,000; it’s a ‘saturated’ market, but that doesn’t mean there’s no room for cool standout brands with point of difference; there absolutely is. Rental costs are lower in absolute terms, the right real estate is challenging to find, but for the right supremely well run brands, we can find it.
It seems that the 2025 budget is a death by a thousand cuts, in contrast the UAE is issuing more than 1,000 new licences a year where visitor arrivals, hotel room supply, F&B establishments are described as strong and positive, rapid expansion and growth market versus pressured, consolidating and in decline. There are challenges here. Those who have tried are testament to that: it is not easy. Even against the backdrop of the F&B sector reaching $19.98 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $43.98 billion by 2029.
The way we do business is different, that market will continue to emerge, evolve and change over the next (exciting) generation. Regulatory requirements sometime make life complex, it is competitive, and we will experience growing pains forever, but come. Don’t come to the UAE blind. Its more expensive to build your restaurant, but it gets easier when you engage with the right marketing, PR and support service agencies. Staffing is sustainably stable versus a 40%+ turnover rate in first 90 days, and on average 10% less than the ongoing UK average. With the right leadership and local engagement one can truly thrive, but don’t think it’s a part time effort, its not, but you’ll need to roll your sleeves up. I advised a London restaurant a couple of years ago, and they lasted no more than eight weeks before pulling the pin following a £1m investment. This is an extreme, many others have thrived and more will continue to. The UAE is seasonally volatile. It’s hot or hotter, but again, with planning and the down times used well, it works. Staff could even work in your home countries if the UK government allowed. Larger brands here are actively planning European pop ups to flat line their P&L and utilise their staff and other central costs.
I would love to see a proper great British pub or one of the legacy brands operating here in the region. The Irish pub chain revenues are eye watering. The UK hospitality market faces genuine structural crisis driven by government policy failure. The UAE offers legitimate operational advantages but not the “promised land” narrative many believe. Success in Dubai requires substantial capital. You need to be able to secure prime real estate. Your concept needs to be genuinely differentiated, and you understand you’re entering a hyper competitive, saturated market. Could All Bar One operate successfully here, could Browns, the ‘Kings Arms’ and other legacy UK brands work in the UAE? I really think so.
Stay in UK or exit hospitality if you’re seeking ‘escape’ from UK without proper capitalisation or you expect easy entry based on sentiment. Very importantly, you lack understanding of Gulf market dynamics or you’re undercapitalised for the competitive reality. The UAE is not an escape route but a calculated strategic pivot requiring substantial capital, market understanding, and acceptance that you’re competing in one of the world’s most competitive F&B markets. The grass isn’t greener; it’s just expensive turf in a different climate.
David Singleton has led and developed organisations around the world, working with some of the world’s best known and loved brands. His formative success came with Mitchells and Butlers as a hospitality leader. He now advises brands, organisations, and leadership teams in growth mode, and coaches C-suite and senior executives on human and organisational transformation. He is considered an expert in franchise development and on market entry strategy to the UAE and Middle East. He is a TEDx speaker and contributing author to regional publications.
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