The Labour Market Overview, published today by the ONS, estimates the number of payrolled employees in the UK in May 2025 decreased by 109,000, compared to the month before.
This loss of jobs exceeds predictions from both the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and a major bank.
The OBR originally predicted the changes to employer NICs would cost 50,000 jobs, before revising its prediction to say the impact would be higher. Deutsche Bank predicted it would cost 100,000 jobs.
The damaging and worse-than-expected impact of the NICs changes on employment, felt most intensely by foundational sectors like hospitality, necessitates an urgent review and reversal of the increases.
Kate Nicholls, Chief Executive of UKHospitality, said: “Losing more than 100,000 jobs across the economy in a month goes far beyond the worst-case scenario predicted by the Government’s own fiscal watchdog, major banks, and countless business groups.
“We were clear at the time that the changes to NICs were a tax on jobs, and so it is sadly proving.
“At a time when we are all striving to grow the economy and help people back into work, the changes to NICs are acting as an anchor to the Government’s ambitions.
“Sectors like hospitality are the very sectors you need to create jobs in every part of the UK and for people of all ages, education and background, but hospitality and those working part-time are among the hardest hit by these tax increases.
“These shocking figures should make it abundantly clear to the Government that the changes to employer NICs are inflicting more harm than good, and they should be reviewed and reversed urgently.”
