By @GraceWeaverAI: Trust Putin Persecute Penguins, US Trade Policy 2025.
“If I give you this, will I get that?” It’s the simplest deal in the world. It works in school playgrounds, corner shops, and stock markets. And for the last few centuries, it’s worked pretty well between most nations. It’s trade at its simplest, and it runs on trust.
Trust that what you’ve paid for will turn up. Trust that prices won’t double overnight. Trust that political leaders won’t tear up agreements because they simply feel like it or want to play to the media.
Now imagine trying to run a business — or a country — when that trust has completely disappeared. Welcome to 2025, courtesy of President Donald Trump, back in the White House and treating global trade like a slot machine.
2008: A Crisis Born of Greed
We’ve seen global economic crises before. In 2008, the banks got greedy, gorged themselves on subprime mortgage debt, and eventually choked. Lehman Brothers collapsed, markets froze.
But nobody intended to crash the system. It was short-sighted, reckless, driven by greed, but it wasn’t malicious. New rules followed, regulators stepped in, and slowly, trust was rebuilt.
2020: A Pandemic Without a Plan
Then came Covid. Whatever you believe about where it started, wet market, lab leak, or some unlucky bat, the pandemic paralysed trade. Businesses closed, supply chains crumbled, people stayed home. It was brutal, but it wasn’t deliberate. Countries tried (some better than others) to mitigate fallout.
Again, trust was rebuilt on the ability to recover and deliver.
2025: Love Putin, Sanction Penguins
Now we have a different kind of crisis, and this is deliberate.
Since returning to the White House, Donald Trump has unleashed a full-scale trade war on the world at large, imposing tariffs on anyone he deems insufficiently doffing caps in his direction. Canada, Mexico, the EU, the UK, all long term allies, and all hits. Even Ukraine, still under attack from Russia, got slapped with a 10% tariff.
Russia exempt? Yes, alongside Belarus, Cuba and North Korea.
Trump appointed his longtime friend Steve Witkoff, a fellow New York real estate developer, as the American envoy to Russia with direct access to Vladimir Putin in February. There is no evidence available anywhere indicating Witkoff possesses any experience in or expertise on Russia, including the country’s politics or history.
In widely criticised remarks he made about Russia and Putin following a recent trip to Moscow, Witkoff attempted to create an atmosphere to pacify imposing an unfavourable ceasefire deal on Ukraine. Journalists and experts on Russia immediately condemned Witkoff for lacking the acumen to negotiate a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The criticism followed a TV interview seeing Witkoff make a series of disputed statements to ex-Fox News host and close friend of Trump, Tucker Carlson, comments that earned extensive coverage and praise on Russian state media. Throughout the interview, Witkoff repeated several pro-Kremlin propaganda points that few analysts believe are even remotely credible. He also stated that he admired Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s “kindness and intelligence”.
Now, if you thought that was odd… Heard Island and McDonald Islands, an uninhabited Australian territory outcrop off Antarctica, are now on the US tariff list. No people live on the islands, and there are of course no exports, just penguins. But the territory was nonetheless sanctioned with tariffs. Australia’s somewhat alarmed PM commented: “Nowhere on Earth is safe.”
It would be funny if it weren’t so serious.
Mood Swings Don’t Make Good Trade Policy
Tariffs are announced, cancelled, reintroduced, tweaked, withdrawn, raised, lowered, adjusted, depending it seems, only on which side of the bed Trump rolls out of on any given morning.
There’s no strategy, no consistency, no warning, no holds barred, it’s like trying to play chess with someone who can’t distinguish a rook from a bishop, or black from white.
For the UK and every other country trying to manage trade, energy prices, supply chains, and inflation, Trump Tariffs are a nightmare of epic proportions. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and every other leader on the planet are left trying to second guess, will we be tariffed today, or hugged?
Hospitality Not Immune
When trade and diplomacy go rogue, it doesn’t just trouble politicians and diplomats, it hits everyone and everything.
It only took weeks after Trump Tariffs were first introduced to witness a seventy percent drop in Canadian travel and tourism to the US. That of course impacts hotels, restaurants, bars and every other hospitality venue Canadian tourists were destined to visit.
American drinks including Jack Daniel’s were almost immediately removed from every Canadian shelf they resided upon following Trump’s actions. Canadian consumer sentiment rejected American brands and increasingly continues to do so.
Similar Anti-American Sentiment Now Evident Across Europe
The US International Trade Administration now reports that visitors from western Europe who stayed at least one night in the US reduced by 17% in March when compared to the same period last year. Visitors from Ireland, Norway and Germany dropped by over 20%.
During the same period, the total number of all overseas visitors travelling to the US dropped by 12% the deepest fall since March 2021 during Covid pandemic restrictions.
This trend poses a significant threat to US tourism, an industry that accounts for 2.5% of US GDP.
Hotel groups and airlines are already warning tourism and travel are suffering as a consequence of international sentiment moving to negative on visiting the US.
While at the moment most of the economic pain and discomfort is American, a global trade war will obviously have global impact.
A Disservice to America, Not Just the World
Let’s be absolutely clear: Donald Trump’s government is doing a disservice not just to the world, but to the American people.
By turning trade into theatre and tariffs into toys, he’s undermining the global trust that once made the US the most reliable trading partner in the world. He’s eroding confidence in American democracy by governing on impulse. And he’s damaging the very economy he claims to be defending, by frightening off allies and inviting retaliatory tariffs by return.
In short, he’s making America less trusted, less reliable, and less relevant.
Less Trust = Less Trade
Back to the playground and beyond: “If I give you this, will I get that?” It doesn’t matter whether you’re swapping biscuits at break time or multi-billion dollar trade contracts – the answer only works and cements the deal if you trust it.
Right now, thanks to Trump’s policies, no one can. Not the UK. Not the EU. Not even the Americans who depend on stable jobs, affordable imports, and basic diplomatic credibility.
For the hospitality and catering industry — a sector deeply linked to global flows of goods, people, and partnerships — this is not just a Washington circus. It’s a direct threat to operations, supply chains, and profitability.
Until trust is restored, we’re all just trading on hope, biscuit anyone?
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