One of the best headlines that ever written in the 1980’s was ‘Kiwi farters ruin ozone layer’. It appeared in the Australian Sun newspaper, a Sydney based title, reading the article was compulsory. At that time the research had just been published which said that animal methane affected the Ozone layer. Hence Australian pop culture and logic followed that because there was a high proportion of livestock to people in NZ, they were ruining the Ozone layer. The fact that there were more cattle in Australia seemed to bypass them. Now researchers are suggesting that Climate Change will ruin vineyards. We ask whether we should be worried?
Recent reports are suggesting that these significant climate changes are having an effect on the world’s wine industry. New figures for the English wine industry are showing 2016 production at a little over 4M bottles, a below the average at 5M bottles. In 2017 the amount is unlikely to increase with the frost of 2-3 weeks ago. Nonetheless these figures would have been astonishing 20 years ago with many commentators doubting that the seasons could be warm and long enough to ripen a quantity of grapes to produce such quantities.
Researchers are reporting that extreme weather events caused by climate change are affecting some of the most revered and traditional wine growing areas such as Southern Italy, Southern Spain and Northern Argentina. Simultaneously northerly wine regions once considered untenable for grape growth for wine production are thriving.
A few weeks ago, it was widely reported that in 100 years’ time Scotland could be producing wines from freshly gathered grapes. However for now England is set to see significant increases in production with over 1M vines going in the ground during 2017, Canada, NZ and Northern China are also gaining in grapes growing. Another marginal region – Tasmania – has been modelled to have the same climate as the more northerly Coonawarra by 2100.
A 2016 American academic report states that climate change is a major challenge for the wine industry, with ripening periods, water deficits, the frequency of extreme climactic events all having negative effects on wine production. But some of this is academic and doesn’t take into consideration the changing style choices of consumption.
Harvesting of grapes is undoubtedly becoming later in many traditional regions raising sugars and resulting alcohols. The increase in alcohol of traditional regions maybe not just be about climate change, but a conscious choice by winemakers to appeal to world markets. They choose to pick grapes later, find growing techniques that have encouraged sugar production, so that either marginal areas (e.g. Central Otago, England, Canada etc) can become economically viable for wine grape production. Sure climate change facilitates this movement, coincidentally, but is a combination of ecological and human factors that bring together opportunity.
Some climate change factors are dramatic, if localised. Between 2012 and 2016 some famous old regions Burgundy and Piedmont (home of Barolo) have recorded massive hailstorms affecting between 50-90% of crop value. But hail is not unique to these areas, with most wine grape growing areas experiencing at least one event per year.
Then there are bush fires, storms and floods, which, according to researchers, when put together with other natural disasters such as earthquakes, create a loss of $10bn.
Of course we should be concerned on a human level for those people whose livelihoods have been involved with wine production and face the prospect of loosing this because of climate change. However the changes are unlikely to be that quick so as to occur in one season. In fact one of the main issues for managers and owners is to understand and decide what is merely an unfortunate event and what is a long-term pattern that equals climate change.
But for wine production per se, then if consumers keep drinking wine then the world will keep producing it. We might loose some familiar names from regions that become uneconomic and unreasonable to grow grapes for wine production, yet where there are losses new regions will emerge. And we will continue to discover regions that were once famous for wine production, but have been lost in the midst of political and economic change.
Should we be worried? It depends on how much we want to rely on the traditional and marginal areas for wine supply. There will be evolution as climate change affects areas, but human intervention will also script new paths and ways of producing wines in economic ways.
Alistair Morrell
Hospitality & Catering News, Wine & Drinks Editor